According to foreign news on October 9, the long-term prospects for many energy-related metals and minerals are brighter than ever. Earlier this month, it was predicted that the mining industry would need about $2.1 trillion in new investment to ensure the supply of key metals and minerals.

　　So far, the bright long-term outlook has failed to incentivize miners to expand production of these metals in any meaningful way.

　　When it comes to the energy transition, metals are the new oil and gas. Achieving the vision of a zero-emission economy based on wind, solar, hydrogen and batteries requires large quantities of metals and minerals classified as critical – and for good reason. Without these metals, there can be no transition. And right now, many of them face severe shortages.

　　“The report notes that key energy transition metals such as aluminium, copper and lithium are likely to face supply shortages this decade, with some of these likely to emerge this year,” it added.

　　It adds that it estimates that the world may need 3 billion tonnes of the metal between now and 2050 to "properly build low-carbon solutions such as electric vehicles, wind turbines and electrolysers".

　　What’s more, this is only half the output needed to achieve the net-zero emissions vision by 2050.

　　Such prospects, while rather grim to the architects of the transition, represent an opportunity for investors. Indeed, reports emerged this week that forecasts of a shortage should see big investors return to metals funds after flows into them slumped over the past decade.

　　However, there may be a problem with this. The outlook for metals and minerals is indeed very positive. However, this outlook has failed to incentivize miners to expand production of these metals in any meaningful way. Instead, this outlook has been repeated time and again by various forecasters, causing prices to plummet.

　　It’s a rather paradoxical development, but demand expectations for elements like copper and lithium are raised so high that when this much-hyped demand surge fails to materialize as quickly as expected, prices crash and remain depressed.

　　However, news that electric vehicle sales are falling almost everywhere except China does little to help bullish metals prices. Electric vehicles have been one of the biggest drivers of future copper demand, and perhaps lithium demand, and forecasts are always bullish.

　　However, reality has not lived up to expectations, disappointing investors who bought into the forecasts and causing prices for both commodities to plummet. Ironically, this has made miners reluctant to commit to expanding production, which is looking increasingly like a vicious cycle for the transitioning industry.

　　Copper has been a better performer, with prices rising earlier this month after China, the largest consumer of the metal and the biggest transition market, announced stimulus measures. However, copper prices could still reverse course after the effects of the stimulus package wear off, as has happened with oil prices.

　　It’s a mixed bag for investors. Of course, they can trust the IEA’s forecasts, and they could be in for a serious surprise if demand for electric vehicles once again fails to live up to the expectations of these forecasters. Or they can choose the cautious wait-and-see path. This isn’t the best path from the perspective of a transition architect, but after a series of bullish forecasts that have failed to come to fruition, investors are bound to start questioning and doubting the entire transition story.